It's more complicated than that!
Su MList, in un messaggio nell’interessante thread “Blog vanità“, Davide Ognibene (Leonardo) annota acutamente:
“L’addetto al marketing e alla comunicazione reagisce male. Mi trova vanitoso. Non faccio che parlare dei fatti miei, mentre lui avrebbe da dirmi cose così interessanti…”
Davide, ti devo un caffè.
Cont tutto il ferro che si accumula ai bordi dell’Iraq, credi che lo lasceranno inutilizzato? Io no. Sono assai convinto che una guerra ci sarà. Ma come sarà? Dice uno degli ufficiali coinvolti nei preparativi:
“On some days, I get up thinking this will be relatively quick and we will be left with a pretty good situation afterwards. On other days, I wake up and think, `Holy sh – -.’ “
Le forze in campo sono talmente ineguali che il risultato è scontato. Ma a che prezzo? E cosa succederà dopo? Ecco alcune cose che potrebbero andare orribilmente storte:
- Iraqi forces unleash their chemical or biological weapons arsenal.
Saddam Hussein makes a bloody last stand in Baghdad.
Iraq’s oil wells are turned into fields of fire.
Saddam puts civilians in harm’s way.
Terrorists acquire Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction.
Once Saddam is ousted, Iraq descends into chaos.
E sono tutte probabili, qualcuna (4 e 6) quasi certa. Ne parlano approfonditamente Mark Mazzetti e Kevin Whitelaw su Community of Minds.
Lungo e ragionato articolo, molto ben documentato, su The Sierra Times, dal titolo “The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War with Iraq: A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth“.Cito il nocciolo:
“The Federal Reserve’s greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a Euro standard. Iraq actually made this switch in Nov. 2000 (when the Euro was worth around 80 cents), and has actually made off like a bandit considering the dollar’s steady depreciation against the Euro” (Note: the dollar declined 17% against the Euro in 2002.)
“The real reason the Bush administration wants a puppet government in Iraq – or more importantly, the reason why the corporate-military-industrial network conglomerate wants a puppet government in Iraq – is so that it will revert back to a dollar standard and stay that way.” (While also hoping to veto any wider OPEC momentum towards the Euro, especially from Iran – the 2nd largest OPEC producer who is actively discussing a switch to Euros for its oil exports).
Furthermore, despite Saudi Arabia being our ‘client state,’ the Saudi regime appears increasingly weak/ threatened from massive civil unrest. Some analysts believe a “Saudi Revolution” might be plausible in the aftermath of an unpopular U.S. invasion of Iraq (i.e.. Iran circa 1979) (1). Undoubtedly, the Bush administration is acutely aware of these risks. Hence, the neo conservative framework entails a large and permanent military presence in the Persian Gulf region in a post-Saddam era, just in case we need to grab and secure Saudi’s oil fields in the event of a Saudi coup by an anti-western group.
“Saddam sealed his fate when he decided to switch to the Euro in late 2000 (and later converted his $10 billion reserve fund at the U.N. to Euros) – at that point, another manufactured Gulf War become inevitable under Bush II. Only the most extreme circumstances could possibly stop that now and I strongly doubt anything can – short of Saddam getting replaced with a pliant regime.”
Mi chiedo però se il passaggio all’Euro non sia stata invece una mossa di Saddam per indebolire una eventuale coalizione anti-Iraq e mettere in difficoltà gli Stati Uniti…
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