The internet boom ritornerà…

W Brian Arthur…e sarà più forte del precedente, sostiene l’autorevole economista W Brian Arthur (Schumpeter Prize in Economics 1990; Guggenheim Fellow, 1987-88; Fellow of the Econometric Society, autore della celebre teoria degli Increasing Returns).

Se ne parla in questo articolo: i cicli tecnologici hanno sempre prodotto una bolla iniziale, seguita da una violenta caduta, seguita da una robusta ripresa.

Each revolution – industrial (1760-1820), railway (1825-1875), steel and electricity (1875-1920), manufacturing (1910-1970) – spawned stock market bubbles that subsequently burst.

‘If we lay the information revolution alongside the railway revolution, year for year, we’d now be somewhere around 1850 – just after the railway investment mania of 1845 and its crash in 1847,’ says Arthur. Within 65 years of that particular market bubble bursting, Britain was to see its railway network expand from 2,148 miles to 21,000 miles – and some serious money made.

According to economists who agree with Arthur, technology must become so user-friendly that people do not think twice about it. In that respect, the internet is being absorbed into everyday life, despite slow download times and quirky graphics.

Once the glitches are ironed out, so the theory goes, the real money will be made by the players left standing.